You are right, that many pollsters do a poor job of polling. That was especially true in 2016. The guy below has a good record, you fight find his analysis interesting but long.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-UtnDlU40E
Regarding the odds, the London odds makers who I think are better than polls because they bet real money on the outcome, give Trump an edge over Biden, but Democrats an edge over Republicans in the Presidential election. In other words, the "odds" say if Trump runs against Biden, he wins, but the odds also suggest an almost 13% chance that someone other than Biden or Trump is elected for a host of reasons. Pretty wild.
Understanding Trump on religion can be confusing. When you look at Trump's actual executive orders and legislation it favors religious liberties.
Biden's executive orders do not. A great example is discharging soldiers who had religious objections to the vaccine. Biden lost when the issue went to the Supreme Court, but the careers of these soldiers was over. He knew he would lose when he issued that order but did anyways. I find that troubling.
I am not a single-issue voter. On the issue of religious liberty, I think Trump wins. But frankly it is part of a bigger issue for me among my top four issues:
Who has the best immigration policy? Bad immigration policy is hurting the US, Canada, Sweden, and Germany to name a few.
Who has the best approach to rein in government spending. Adding $1 trillion to our national debt every 100 days is not sustainable.
Who is likely to minimize the US foreign entanglements in "small wars"... a big war, may leave us no choice.
Who opposes infringing on civil liberties the most and where conflicting civil liberties are unreconcilable, who proposes legislative vs judicial or presidential actions. Trump has generally deferred to Congress and the states, I like that.
Other key issues:
Minimizing federalism to promote competition among the states. Competition tends to force states to eventually adapt reasonable laws once they exhaust the irrational ones. Hoping my state, California, wakes up to the fact that our current policies are going to bankrupt us without a federal bailout over the next few years and where is the federal government going to "print", I mean find the money?
Who has the best energy policy? Long term more than climate change, the world has a limited supply of fossil fuels that will require us to find other reliable, cheap, abundant, portable, and safe energy solutions if we have any chance of maintaining our quality of life. I think Biden is over relying on energy solutions tied to the grid. That single point of failure makes me nervous.
And lastly, I am concerned and have been concerned for years, that an unelected fourth branch of government has too much power. I had an ex-cabinet secretary on my board in the past and he made me aware of the problem people call "the Swamp" back in the early 90s and it has gotten much worse.
"The Swamp" is not all of government, most of government are just bureaucrats doing their jobs, but those with regulatory, judicial, police, and regulatory power, who use it to advance their own interests rather than serve citizens are the problem. In Washington power is driven by funding and authority, the more funding and more authority we give an agency, the more it acts as an unelected branch of government impacting our daily lives without any legislative oversight. I am happy with SCOTUS recent rejection of these regulations (not the regulations per se, but the ability to enact major regulations without Congressional action).
