When we “re-open” the Country… What to Expect

I believe that when we open the country, we will see the number of virus cases continue to increase and decrease across the country… The virus is embedded in our society for awhile. There is nothing we can do about that. All the social distancing in the world won’t make it go away. All it has done to date is moderate the rate at which it spreads.

But when this second wave begins to move through the country, we will be prepared with enough PPE, ventilators, and drug therapies to deal with it. People will continue to die, but fewer will die than would have if we had not bought the time necessary to prepare for this second wave.

For awhile our lives will be different. We will be more conscious of how infections spread. We will feel less comfortable in crowded venues including movie theaters, stadiums, airlines and restaurants. Hopefully, hand-washing will continue to be practiced with more conscientiousness. Many will choose not to greet people by shaking hands.

I think people will continue to order more takeout, even if they occasionally go out. People will order more things on line even if they go to the retail outlets to get out of the house. People will consume more entertainment at home rather than in public venues… they called it cocooning in the past, I think it will make comeback.

Once a vaccine is available, we will begin revert back to the way life was before the virus, but not totally. We will forever be a bit more socially distant. Politically, our country will turn in to itself. The disadvantages of globalism more evident and the need to produce strategic goods within our borders even if at a slightly higher price deemed worthwhile.

China has made it clear, they are no friend of the US. Trade between us will decline. And even as our political relationships with China become strained, personal relationships between individual Americans and Chinese will continue to develop. Because at the human level we have far more in common than we have differences, but our political systems are incompatible and so there is little chance to develop a relationship similar to the one the US has enjoyed with England over the decades.

As a result of this virus, the US will add trillions more to the national debt. Not even taxing the rich will make much impact on that debt. Will our government simply give up on ever balancing the budget? Instead muddle on until whatever happens, happens. It is not clear to me whether programs likely to add trillions to our national debt like college loan forgiveness programs and national health care will be justified under the idea that we are so much in debt a few trillion more won’t matter or will they be opposed under the idea we simply cannot afford any new entitlements much less the ones we already have. But the debt will become a bigger talking point when discussing entitlements.

These are not all the changes that are likely, but an initial prediction based on observations from past crises. Add your thoughts to what differences you expect… by commenting…