When addressing demographics, I use the data readily available. And then try to understand what issue is moving people within that group to change their vote.

If someone says Trump's support has increased from around 20% of Hispanics to 50% of Hispanics, it still leaves 50% of Hispanics against Trump. But when looking at who will win in 2024, it may well swing a state like Arizona given how close 2020 was.

Similarly, Trump support among blue collar workers has grown and that support could influence the outcome of Michigan and Wisconsin. Obviously because people are individuals, they vote according to their individual reasons, so identity group classifications are largely used to quantify estimated shifts in voting patterns.

It may well be that more highly educated affluent white women are supporting Biden more than in 2020, because of his abortion position. Clearly, the Democrats think the policy will help them in several states. That does not suggest that every woman supports abortion, in fact, polls show women in general are more likely than men to want to put limits on abortion, but nevertheless, the abortion issue plays well with young white suburban women and is shifting their vote.

I agree with you that Presidents often get too much credit or blame for the economy or when a pandemic hits the world. But it is what it is.

However, various independent groups including the Federal Reserve have cited Biden's fiscal policies as having three effects... creating jobs, boosting GDP, and causing inflation.

Now, given that we had plenty of jobs already, most people saw little to no benefit from the marginal jobs Biden created with his spending. Meanwhile, economic growth is an important thing especially when the population is growing due to immigration or standards of living will decline, but it does not impact most individuals unless they invest in stocks. But "inflation" is a "gut punch" that hurts a very large segment of the population... typically inflation shifts purchasing power from the young, the poor, and minorities (including people who are young, poor, and a minority) to those who are older, higher educated, and have stocks or wealth.

So, it is understandable that young, poor, working minorities are shifting towards Trump, while more affluent minorities are not. Biden's policies hurt working class people, who are disproportionately minorities, that is not the same as saying all minorities are working class people.

Bottom line, Biden picked the worst possible time to launch his green energy initiative, to open up the border, and to boost government spending by 5% of GDP. The supply side of the economy was constrained by both the pandemic and Russia/Ukrainian war. Biden did not cause those events, but as Democratic economist, Larry Summers warned Biden, the economy was not going to be able to handle his policies... Biden went ahead anyways.

I think many Presidents get into office committed to an ideology and believing they have only 24 months before Congress potentially changes hands to get things done. So, they push ahead regardless of the timing... but this time, Biden really screwed up. He threw gasoline on the fire and ignited inflation that has left 80% of Americans worse off. You can study the issue and whether it is important or not to you, it is worth noting that Democrats have largely abandoned the issues that are important to working poor and instead have embraced policies that resonate with elitists. And voters in those groups are noticing and it is showing up in the polling the data.

I don' t think Trump is losing you. You probably never supported him, so you are not relevant to this campaign. In this election the "relevant" voters are those mostly likely to change their vote from 2020 who reside in swing states. Those people are people who are "hurting" due to Biden's policies. The Democrats are trying to use fearmongering to keep those people in line. It is simply dumb to honestly believe Trump has any chance of being dictator... while the country has little to fear from either Trump or Biden becoming dictators (their age largely precludes both of them from that being a threat), the Democrats have made more one than one attempt to become a one-party system.

I have seen that happen in California, and now our state is going down the tubes. I tend to agree with the political science professor who says you need a least two viable parties to require government to respond to the people. We don't have that in California and its really getting really bad.