Well thought out and I largely agree with you except Ukraine will seek to join NATO membership.

This will largely ensure that Russia never invades Ukraine again. But more importantly, it will likely encourage Russia to install a real democracy and join NATO (since alone Russia is wedged between China and the EU...

At that point NATO changes into the defense arm of the EU. And the US is kicked out as a NATO member and instead becomes an "ally" of the new EU.

My other prediction is Putin will be dead within two years. Russia does not tolerate autocrats that lose.