The destruction of cities by Democratic Mayors and Governors
The explosion of violence and property damage in many cities threatens to turn them into “barren” commercial zones. Previous riots were met with years of abandonment of inner cities and increased security in other key commercial areas of the city. Over time, cities healed as entrepreneurs saw an opportunity to make some money by setting up a small business and selling to the urban population.
As long as cities housed office buildings and residents, the demand for products and services insured eventually businesses would return. But the pandemic combined with the pillaging of stores and lock down of restaurants and other service establishments has to be causing people to wonder if the city can recover. Let’s consider:
In the past, office buildings full of middle and upper income workers insured high end retail stores would set themselves up nearby to provide products to these workers. But as a result of the pandemic, many companies are realizing that they do not need large office footprints. Instead more and more workers can work from home, this means far fewer middle and upper income workers to purchase goods. Fewer office workers means fewer service workers to support them.
But it gets worse, many office workers chose to live in the cities to reduce their daily commute. Besides the shopping they did during the day, they added their dollars to the restaurants and other businesses designed to address their demands. With the pandemic and violence and the shutdowns, many of these residents are saying it is time to leave the city. This middle class and upper class “resident” flight means that not only will business lose many of its day shoppers but it will lose its evening and weekend shoppers.
But it gets worse, many people in the suburbs for whom a trip to the city was a “fun day”, will stop going as the cities offer far less than they once did to amuse and interest visitors. This further will hurt the recovery of the retail and service workers.
But it gets even worse, why risk the danger of going into a city that is no longer seen as safe when everything you want is on line with almost instant delivery. The pandemic and the violence will has already resulted in what I have heard is 5% more of the national retail dollar is being spent on line.
Retail was already struggling. But the triple threat of online selling, fewer customers (due to fewer residents, few commuters, and fewer visitors), and the threat to a retailer’s inventory from arson, vandalism, and outright threat may mean the final death knell for many of America’s cities.
Maybe it was inevitable, but maybe not. As recently as three years ago, I knew young adults who wanted and did move into cities for all they had to offer. One of those people is one of my daughters, but the attraction of city living has really diminished. Simply said, the failure of mayors and governors in some of America’s largest cities at a time when cities were already under attack from technology to keep their cities safe may turn them into urban centers of decay… Instead of a place people want to live, they will become a place where people who have no other choices live.
Will they ever comeback? Perhaps. Cities need to take a whole new look at themselves. People won’t need them anymore. They have to compete for residents, just like states are competing for businesses. They need to think of themselves as landlords… competing with other landlords… to attract residents, business owners, etc. Every morning city leaders need to rise up from their collective beds and ask a simply question, what am I going to do to make my city a better place to live?
Listening to mayors on TV, it sounds like they are focused on identity politics. How do I keep my constituency happy. But the truth is most residents want a safe place to sleep at night, to work during the day, to send their children to, and shop in. It really does not matter if those residents are rich or poor or what race they are or what religion. The time for pitting identity groups against one another is over… for some cities it might be to late… they are doomed for what could be an ice age of blight… for others it is not to late. I wonder if any mayors and governors will step up and establish law and order quickly to stop the destruction of their cities. Those that don’t might find they have misread the silent majority when the next election comes along.
Eventually new politicians who understand the world changed and from now on they have to offer something that the suburbs and rural areas can’t to their residents, commuters, and visitors and if they can’t, then their cities are dead.
