So when China failed to roll out the red carpet for Obama disrespecting him and putting all of southeast Asia on notice that there was a new sheriff in town, you were equally upset. When Hillary Clinton suggested that the US and Putin would have a fresh start and then Putin invaded the Crimea, you were aghast. How about when Syria said bull to Obama’s red line and used chemical weapons on its own people. Then of course there was the time Turkey seized an American citizen and Obama did nothing. Let’s not even get into the $100 billion Iran extracted from the US and has used to fund terrorism around the globe or that the rapid progress they have made on nuclear weapons in recent months is evidence they had been developing nuclear capabilities the whole time they pretended to be in compliance with the treaty.
Frankly, I was not happy about any of those events, but unlike the ones involving Obama and Clinton, Trump does not walk away from slights but rather combines economic pressure and the occasional show of military force to make people aware he is prepared to use force, but it is not his first response. I like that.
I also like the fact that living so close to one of the nation’s largest Marine bases, that these Marines believe that Trump is looking out for them. He is insuring they get upgraded equipment, better health care when they leave the military, and rules of engagement that don’t result in unnecessary casualties. His recent pardons have reverberated through the military like nothing else… soldiers no longer think they will be scapegoats at the alter of political correctness… bad things happen when bullets start to fly… soldiers want to know the Commander in Chief has their backs.
Trump’s approach takes time to play out. Trump often plays nice with American’s adversaries referring to them as virtual friends and then acts behind the scenes to put great pressure on them usually using economic pressure as his preferred strategy. The approach allows his adversaries and the US to pretend any issues were “misunderstandings”. This form of personal diplomacy is pretty effective especially with “strong men” leaders, who precarious hold on power does not allow them to disrespected in public without a response.
This last week-end riots broke out in 58 cities in Iran as a result of the economic pressure Trump is placing on Iran. This is why Iran is trying to create an international incident to rally the people’s support against the “invader”, but Trump is not giving in to the temptation to retaliate, but rather he is using US military forces to contain Iran’s damage while his economic pressure is starting to lead to civil unrest.
China faces similar issues. Trump is all smiles and pretends a deal is around the corner, but he is perfectly happy to see American companies permanently move their supply chains out of China to other countries and permanently weaken China’s economy. China’s boycott of US farmers is hurting both farmers in the US and Chinese consumers badly as food prices skyrocket in China and economic growth declines. All the time, Trump refers to the head of China as a friend. Eventually, Trump will compromise and China will not honor whatever agreements they enter into… but after the deal China will be less well off and the US will be in a better position for the next round of negotiations.
Erdogan is testing the waters with Putin to see if Russia will ride to his rescue. That would give him the leverage to blow off the US. But Russia is also behind Syria and so it may require Russian forces to keep Syria and Turkey apart. If that happens, then Putin’s mischief in Ukraine will need to be put on hold. He simply does not have the resources to engage in multiple international military operations. So either Trump gets Russia embroiled in tensions between Syria and Turkey helping Ukraine keep Russia at bay or Turkey comes running back to the US looking for assistance. Time will tell. But where is the downside?
