Michael F Schundler
2 min readJun 7, 2022

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Profits don't drive inflation... hint, the lack of supply and the excess supply of money drive inflation.

So, does the government have any impact on how much money is circulating in the economy? The answer is yes... fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus. The Biden administration used both levers when they were not necessary to stimulate the economy in 2021.

The Stimulus Bill gave everyone money when at best 10% of the population were suffering from job and business closures due to the pandemic. All that money started chasing the limited supply of products... how does a free market economy adjust demand based on limited supply... it raises prices. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates low and supplying the market with liquidity long after economists said it was time to gradually raise interest rates. (Look up the San Francisco's Federal Reserve Board's analysis of the impact of the Stimulus bill on inflation).

Next, the lack of supply was heavily influenced by government policies. Talk to truckers and anyone else in the transportation industry about how government mandates, lockdowns, and other bureaucratic actions both in America and abroad crushed the supply of goods. Talk to small business owners how Biden's rich supplemental unemployment benefits triggered a record number of people resigning from their jobs and a wage inflation war that translated into higher prices. These are direct responses to government policies.

You should understand this truth...

Businesses are naturally inclined to overproduce and thus drive down prices, they do so to increase market share and generate a marginal profit by adding additional units of production. Only when some obstalce to producing more prevents that, do they explore raising prices to reduce demand down to the available supply. Higher prices reduces the market size and industries are very reluctant to do that unless it is necessary.

If oil companies did not raise prices than consumers would go to the gas station only to find "no gas" (see link below from the 1970s). The choice is high prices or gas shortages unless the Biden administration reverses their anti-fossil fuel policies in favor of "all energy" policies. The influence of ideologues on Biden's energy policy.

Now think about your personal situation. If you had to work 20% less, but could raise your wages to offset the lost income... would you? Or would you keep working at the same rate and earning 20% less income even if you could raise your wage rate? Energy demand is high, government policies are constraining supply, the obvious response is to raise prices. But government policy is driving the behavior, not large corporations.

https://notevenpast.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/No_gas_0.png

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