Jeanne, you really need to read the book…
What you wrote is a classic example of weather attribution… the attribution of current weather pattern changes to climate change. The media is extremely guilty of this along with some publicity seeking weather analysts…
Arizona appears to be subjected to extended droughts going back at least to 1933 that last over 20 years. The worst historical drought in AZ occurred from 1942 to 1964 (22 years!). Other droughts went from 1932–1936 and 1973 to 1977. “Localized” droughts are even more common and often last up to 5 years. Over the last 26 years, AZ has had 10 years of “wetter” than normal weather and 16 years of “drier” than average precipitation.
Cumulatively, this is consistent with weather patterns in the western states and contrary to weather patterns in the country… suggesting it is not the result of “climate change” but more localized weather patterns…
As for people fleeing the current drought, did you read the Grapes of Wrath and the massive migration of people out of Oklahoma in the 30s due to an extended drought. Was that global warming, that went away? Since the trends are for an increase in rainfall.
Here is what the EPA has said about rain in the US…
- On average, total annual precipitation has increased over land areas in the United States and worldwide (see Figures 1 and 2). Since 1901, global precipitation has increased at an average rate of 0.10 inches per decade, while precipitation in the contiguous 48 states has increased at a rate of 0.20 inches per decade.
- Some parts of the United States have experienced greater increases in precipitation than others. A few areas, such as the Southwest, have seen a decrease in precipitation (see Figure 3).
So if it is raining more around the US and the world and less in Arizona then the increase in CO2 in the air argues that the slight warming trends noted should lead to more rain… yet you are arguing that it has lead to less. Of course, if every change in weather is “attributed” to “climate change”. Then you are defining climate change as the “cause” not proving it. That is what “weather attribution” is all about. The science behind “more rain” is warmer temperatures lead to higher evaporation rates that lead to more rain… makes sense. Droughts don’t, at least with regard to climate change.
Where I do tend to agree with you is that AZ is mostly a desert and subject to frequent and extended droughts and modern air conditioning has caused far to many people to flock to AZ when colder and wetter climates are better equipped to handle them.
Population more than weather are putting a severe strain on AZ water supplies… Furthermore, emerging studies show that “population” can influence weather by virtue of the “heat” humans produce through living… this is why it snows much less in northern urban cities than the surrounding countryside… So more and more urban areas are recording “record high temperatures” when areas as close as 70 miles away show no measurable temperature change.
Read the book… I think you will like it…
