Interesting analysis.

It fits with the idea that NATO is slowly turning the war in Ukraine into a "proxy" war. The longer Ukraine holds out, the more NATO's weapons and logistical advantages will accrue to the Ukrainians.

If at any point, NATO equips Ukraine with the weapons to neutralize Russia's advantage in the air, the Russian army will breakdown and the mounting casualties will likely force regime change in Russia.

Russia has never been kind to autocrats that lose.