I think we will have a recession. Historically, we have had over 30 of them. They last as few as six months (two quarters of negative inflation adjusted GDP growth) to several years.

But big picture the "current recessionary" 1st Quarter is partially due to pulling demand forward as a result of stimulus payments in 2021. Employment is rapidly coming on line and even fossil fuel production is increasing slowly. With labor and energy coming on line, economic growth is likely in the near future.

There remain supply chain issues largely related to Covid in China and progressive green energy policies.

Voters have figured this out especially in Europe and I expect a lot of the progressive policies that have contributed to these problems will go away.

At the end of the day, economic growth is a function of the number of people working and their productivity. The first variable is growing nicely and we have over 11 million unfilled jobs in this country. The second variable is being driven by labor shortage as company's figure out how to produce more stuff using fewer people.