I strongly doubt Russia will employ its military against any other nation while the Ukrainian war is going on. It has lost over 15% of its ground forces, that is huge. The losses are even steeper among its front-line officer corps, and it does not utilize the NCO system the US does, so that it leaves fewer and fewer tactical options.

I don't think Russia wants NATO involved, that would be a disaster. If NATO got involved Russia military would be crushed.

So Russia's strategy is pretty clear, it is hoping it can inflict enough pain on Ukraine that Ukraine agrees to cede enough territory that Russia can claim a win. That would not be worth any price as long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight.

I am all for peace. The last thing I favor is a "Chamberlain" strategy. That has never worked with dictators and there is no reason to expect it will work now.

The comparisons with Afghanistan are weak at best. We actually spent 20 years there and lost around 2,000 men. We won the war in Afghanistan in a few months, what we lost was "the peace".

Russia has spent less than 1 year in Ukraine and lost around 130,000 men. Do you really think they can keep it up for very long? Since Ukrainians are fighting to preserve their independence and we are supporting them, there is "no peace" to win. In contrast, if Russia "won" the war, then you have a point, it might have to either resort to genocide or a 20-year war to try to maintain the peace. As Ukrainian separatists would rise up and Ukraine would clear support the movement.

Russia's best play is to offer those Ukrainians, that want Russian rule, land in Russia. Russia needs people; it does not need land.