I don' think the oil price cap itself will have much impact. It will have some impact, but not that dramatic. The US has lost the equivalent amount of GDP since Biden came to office and while it hurts, it is not crippling.

More problematic is the US and EU are "literally dismantling the Russian army through their support of Ukraine. If this war drags on another year, the Russian military will be so crippled it will take years for it to recover.

This war is like Russia's Afghanistan times 10 when you look at Russian losses. In less than a year, Russia has lost 6 times the number of soldiers as an example then it did for the entire Afghan war. And that war crippled Russia.

Russia has abundant fossil fuels, but it has far less manpower than it had in the past. Keep stripping out that manpower to fight in Ukraine and the labor force will shrink even faster than it was prior to the war... due to low fertility rates in Russia and an aging population.

If the war continues for another year or two, Russia could replace Japan as the country with the fastest shrinking population. That is brutal to any economy.

Meanwhile, Chinese have "migrated" and "populated" Russia's eastern oil fields along its border. At some point, China may just annex them as Russia won't have the military to say no.

Putin has screwed up big time, Russia's only real option is to seek peace, but Putin failure would mean his demise. In the past, countries treated their citizens as an endless resource, but in this day of rapidly declining birth rates, workers/soldiers are going to become the precious resource... for more than oil and gas.