I do not think the abortion issue is a religious one. There are atheists that oppose abortion:
https://www.facebook.com/AtheistsAgainstAbortion/
It is nice to talk about an unborn baby as a fetus, it depersonalizes the baby much like calling someone a “savage”. But the “savage” is a human and so is the fetus. In fact, the definition of a fetus is an unborn baby. So if we enter the discussion with the understanding that whenever an abortion is performed a human is being killed, then I think as a society we are more likely to come to a place where the law is the best one under the circumstances.
Nothing undermines debate more than false narratives like the ones claiming anti abortion laws are somehow attempts by men to subjugate women when in general men and women hold similar views on abortion both for and against.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/235646/men-women-generally-hold-similar-abortion-attitudes.aspx
So if gender is not the reason people split on the issue, then what is. In simple words, the current progressive “position” is that rights are not equal, that there is a “priority of rights” with women in this instance having priority. This position conflicts directly with the beliefs of classical liberals that believe personal civil rights are equal and when they conflict they need to be balanced as much as possible, which is what Roe vs Wade tried to do, when it argued a “mother’s right to privacy” superseded a baby’s right to life up to the point the baby could not live outside the womb. Finally, there are those that believe to the extent the mother failed to avoid pregnancy that she forfeited her rights and therefore the baby’s rights should take precedence.
Most Americans support Roe vs Wade as the “middle road” but even here there are conflicts. Since this ruling, science has shaved about 8 weeks off this time from around 28 weeks to around 20 weeks today. So where as the woman’s right to an abortion was 7 months previously, using the Roe vs Wade standard, it would be down to 5 months. Several states are moving towards “heart beat” laws which reduce the window for a mother to exercise her right to an abortion to around 6 weeks. But all of these debates revolve around a different point of balance not a priority of rights or forfeited rights.
I do think that most Americans find the idea of killing a baby repulsive and as the baby begin to demonstrate its “humanity”, people begin to push back against abortions for all but medical reasons and cases of sexual violence like rape and incest. So where does that leave us?
My bet is that states will enact different laws reflecting the various ethical beliefs of the citizens of those states “as a whole”, not as individuals. Laws are in the end a reflection of the values of society and those values vary by state. But the Federal government is also a player in this debate and Congress and the Supreme Court have yet to weigh in on the issue in light of the lower age at which a baby can survive outside the mother.
My guess is the Supreme Court will affirm Roe vs Wade as the minimum standard at which point the Federal government has an interest in preserving life but the new cut off point will be 20 weeks or so. The Supreme Court seems inclined to allow states more latitude than prior courts and so it will likely avoid cases which do not conflict with this revised view of Roe vs Wade and strike down those that do.
But science marches on and with science the window during which a baby depends on the mother’s womb will shrink. And so I expect that whatever is settled on today will be up for debate again in the future.
