Michael F Schundler
2 min readJan 8, 2024

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Good catch, I forgot to include the violent crime rate to provide context, which is highly correlated to violent police encounters.

These numbers indicate that Blacks committed 34.9% of nonfatal violent crimes (based on the 2018 statistics maintained by the Bureau of Justice Statistics) and 42.8% of the serious violent crimes.

https://reason.com/volokh/2021/04/24/race-and-violent-crime/

The percentage gets even higher when you look at fatal deaths...

https://crimeresearch.org/2023/11/violent-crime-rates-by-race/

When you look at the composition of the population at large, the 3X number looks wrong, but you would not expect police to have fatal encounters with non-violent citizens (in rare cases they do and most of us can name them since they make the news). Those police should be prosecuted, and most are. My brother as mayor of Jersey had one such incident in the 90s and his office spared no offense in prosecuting a police officer that was clearly racist and the officer was sent to prison.

But when you look at fatal encounters as a percentage of police encounters with violent criminals (using violent crime rates as a proxy for violent crime encounters), the statistics are pretty much in line, suggesting that while individual cases of racism occur (as I noted above), systemic racism is just not supported by the statistics instead the statistics highlight a serious violence issue in black communities and recent studies suggest things have gotten worse as police have pulled back as a result of defunding and loss of immunity.

So, what is your solution to this violent crime problem and why do you think it exists. While skin color is obviously not "the cause" of people acting violently, it is a predictor of violence.

Personally, I think the issue needs a lot more study. For example, if you eliminate all gang related activity, how do the numbers change?

Is there any evidence that the skin color of the police officer impacts the outcome of encounters with violent black offenders? Statistics are interesting but not always useful unless a causal reason can be found.

Defaulting to skin color (racism) as a "casual" reason undermines real solutions. Simply said, if police officers were all black in black neighborhoods would you expect violent crime or deaths from police encounters to go down... and what evidence of that do you have?

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